Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
